Demographic Responses to Economic and Environmental Crises

In this paper mortality crises in a rural area in southern Sweden are analysed by using a new approach. We start off with a combined life-event and time-series analysis approach in which the influences of food prices, agricultural production and air temperature on mortality by age, sex and socio-economic status is analyzed, much in line with our previous work. Special attention is given to years when food prices were particularly high, production particularly low and climate particularly unfavourable. We then identify years with mortality crises defined as two succeeding years with at least 25 percent more deaths than normal (often much more). This takes place five times between 1766 and 1860, which is the period we analyse. We analyse whether the causal factors for these crises differ from other years of excess mortality, or if it is just a matter of ―more of the same‖. The data for five rural parishes in southern Sweden analyzed comes from the Scanian Demographic Database. Food prices are local, temperature data stems from a nearby town, and production refers to Scania, the southernmost county of Sweden where all five parishes are located. We find that the mortality crises differ from other years with respect to its causal mechanisms, in particular with respect to effects of food prices.